Sunshine City (000671): Sales are relaxed due to external complications
Event Overview Sunshine City released its January business briefing, and the company achieved sales of 101 in January 2020.6 trillion, sales area 86.70,000 square meters. Analysis and judgment: The sales are slightly tiered, and the average price slightly increased. The company achieved a sales amount of 101 in a single month in January.600 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month-on-year decrease of 65%.1%, sales area per month is 86.70,000 square meters, down by 16 every year.1%, down 64% from the previous month.2%; the average monthly sales price is 11,708.8 yuan / square meter, an increase of 2 every year.5%, down 2 from the previous month.5%.Taken together, the company’s sales in January showed a certain extent, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic situation; if the recent epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the impact on sales can be controlled. Land intensification has been strengthened, and companies in key metropolitan areas have acquired 6 projects in Hangzhou, Taizhou, Fuzhou, Changsha and other regions in one month. In addition, the total land area has reached 870,000 square meters, an increase of 47.2%, down 66% from the previous month.2%; the amount 夜来香体验网 of land taken in a single month is 39.800 million, a year-on-year increase of 38%, a month-on-month decrease of 61.8%, accounting for 39 of the sales amount for the month.2%, up 3 from last month.4pct, investment strength has increased.Judging from the structure of land acquisition, the company’s land acquisition areas are located in the areas of Fujian and the Yangtze River Delta in the early days, and continue to adhere to the “3 + 1 + X” strategic layout. Investment recommendations Sunshine City’s sales and performance have grown rapidly, the core metropolitan area is rich in soil reserves, financial optimization has continued, and financing costs improved.We maintain the company’s profit forecast unchanged. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 1.03/1.41/1.87 yuan, corresponding to PE is 6.5/4.8/3.6 times, maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating. Risks indicate that the epidemic situation has exceeded expectations, real estate policies have continued to tighten, and sales have fallen short of expectations.
High Energy Environment (603588) In-Depth Research Report： Leading Soil Remediation Leader Enjoys High-Growth Market
High Energy Environment (603588) In-Depth Research Report: Leading Soil Remediation Leader Enjoys High-Growth Market
Key points of investment: Comprehensive solid waste service platform The company is a comprehensive solid waste service platform with environmental restoration, hazardous waste treatment and disposal, and domestic 武汉夜网论坛 waste disposal as its core business. The three major business revenues in 2018 were 34%, 31%, 25%. Leaders in soil remediation, benefiting from the heavy market potential for billions of soil remediation space to be released, and increased through the relocation of industrial enterprises, the remediation is even more urgent. With the introduction of the “Ten Ten Articles” related policies in 2016, the soil remediation market has been rapidly released in recent years, and the market has increased from 62 in 2016.The order of US $ 8.5 billion increased to US $ 13.5 billion in 18 years. The soil pollution control law officially implemented in 19 and a series of detailed soil investigations are expected to gradually promote the release of the market.The company has been awarded as the “Leadership Enterprise in Soil Remediation” for 4 consecutive years, with 20 new orders in 18 years.USD 7.9 billion, with an annual growth rate of 99% and a market share of 15%. In the past four years, the business revenue compound diameter has been 68%. It is expected to significantly increase the market volume in the future. The waste incineration construction is accelerating, and the project is gradually put into operation to provide cash flow. The scale of the waste incineration project in hand has reached 8800 tons / day, 300 tons / day has been put into operation, and 4500 tons / day is under construction.The 3,300 ton / day project has entered the construction period, and the company’s operating scale in 19 years will reach 4,000 ton / day. Successive projects are expected to gradually provide cash flow support. Hazardous waste revenue is higher, and future production capacity increase is expected to bring about performance improvement. After years of acquisition and self-built layout, the company has formed an approved operating scale of 50 cases / year. In 18 years, the net profit of hazardous waste business has replaced the company by about 1/3.At present, the company has reserved 5 projects to be built with an operating scale of more than 3 billion US dollars / year. It is expected to gradually improve the company’s performance in the future. The “Recommended” rating is given to the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in the years 19-21 of 4, respectively.21 billion, 5.32 billion and 6.USD 9.5 billion, corresponding to PE of 17x, 13x, and 10x respectively. Compared with comparable companies in the same industry, it is estimated that it 杭州桑拿网 has advantages. At the same time, the company’s environmental repair business has reduced capital investment, has a broad prospect, and its operating business proportion has gradually increased. It is expected to achieve sustainable growth in the future., Give “recommended” rating. Risk warning: the policy is weaker than expected; the project progress is lower than expected; the financing progress is lower than expected; the profitability of hazardous waste is lower than expected; the goodwill is impaired.
Zheng Yanpan: Long and short splits should not be excessive speculation
Source: Daily Economic News Every time Zheng Buchun, a reporter, on Wednesday, A shares fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.32%, Shenzhen motherboard, small and medium-sized, the KLCI fell 0.55%, 0.47%, 1.38%.From the perspective of the disk, the turnover of various types of stock indexes has increased. Among them, the fine-grained classification and the high-tech turnover have gradually extended the highest, suggesting that the long and short divisions are increasing sharply.Weighting, the performance of 天津夜网 blue chips is still tepid. Most varieties have limited transactions and mediocre performance. Only Wuliangye, Hikvision and other few varieties have increased slightly. The news on Wednesday was obviously positive.According to official news, on February 18, Premier Li Keqiang announced at the State Council executive meeting that it will reduce the social insurance premiums of enterprises and implement the policy of deferred payment of housing provident fund for enterprises to implement more stable employment. Yesterday I said that “the epidemic data will be reversed on Wednesday morning.” This is also the case. The newly confirmed confirmed cases in the first 24 hours on Wednesday were 1751, and the supplementary cure was 1912.The above two important data are the first reversal, and the “super golden fork” has appeared, and its significance is self-evident. When the number of patients in the hospital decreases, doctors are enough to treat the remaining patients efficiently, and enter a virtuous circle.In addition, the virtuous cycle is continuous, and even the speed of improvement may become faster and faster, and eventually it may appear “one-sided”. Regarding the progress of resumption of work and the epidemic situation, it may not be completely clear until the appropriate companies resume work, but individuals are more confident about this. One of the important factors is that our ability to mobilize staff is unparalleled in the world. Another important factor is that we haveMore news about “effective new drugs”. Following a net gain of 5.3 billion the previous day, the net inflow of capital to the north on Wednesday resumed, with a net inflow of 64.24 ppm, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 34 ppm and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 30 ppm.There are many positive news news on Wednesday. This should be the essence of the northbound fund re-weighting A shares. After that, this part of the fund is relatively rational and has the opposite strategic thinking, and rarely counteracts the news news. The overall rise of technology stocks is just a marked differentiation. A large number of varieties have received long lines with long shadows, and with huge handovers, the shape is suspected to be dangerous.In the final close, chip stocks and software stocks remained strong, while the rest were weaker. Recent technology, substitution, and other related issues have been hyped too much, too much profit and very thick chips, or there are demands for phased out, which can also be trimmed in the increase in market turnover compared to the top two.If it falls more, it is good, if it rises more, it is bearish!Some speculative funds recognize this principle, and their operating style tends to focus more on tactics, and they prefer to “reverse the message”. Whether it is operated or not, there is nothing right or wrong in itself, as long as investors can control it smoothly.Personally, I think some of the strong stocks are still very difficult to operate recently, and they have higher requirements on the individual capabilities of investors.The new rules on refinancing earlier this week will trigger capital bull stocks in the future, but ordinary investors cannot predict such news at all, so only funds with strong information control capabilities can take the lead. On the whole, for all speculative interventions, I personally feel that investors within 3 years of opening an account are best treated with caution.If investors can still humbly admit that they are only “head sheep”, then it is not appropriate to “dance with wolves”. In the future, if the epidemic situation is getting better and better, investors can consider making up some blue chip stocks, outstanding stocks, moderately reducing technology stocks, and the proportion of positions that can be held.Because of common sense, when the epidemic situation improves, “poverty alleviation operations” will usually be less, and the situation of excessive liquidity will be slightly weakened, that is, some opportunities for recycling some liquidity cannot be eliminated.These factors will have a relatively small impact on blue chip stocks and outstanding stocks, and they will have a relatively large impact on the individual stocks.
Neway Shares (603699) Interim Review： Increased profitability boosts performance, accelerates growth, and expands in multiple areas
Neway Shares (603699) Interim Review: Increased profitability boosts performance, accelerates growth, and expands in multiple areas
The growth of 2019H1 performance is accelerating, and the growth logic is gradually fulfilling, maintaining the “recommended” rating company’s 2019H1 revenue of 13.7 ppm, 10-year average of 1%, net profit attributable to mother 2.1.6 billion, a substantial increase of 88% over the same period, after deducting non-existent growth of 73%.Benefiting from the improvement of product gross profit margin and optimization of operating efficiency, the company’s performance accelerated in 2019 following the inflection point in 2018H2.We believe that the breakthroughs in new areas, the logic of intelligent product upgrades and 北京夜生活网 maintenance updates, and the market expansion logic are gradually being realized. The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected3.94 (+0.15) / 5.12 (+0.05) / 6.71 (+0.11) Maintain the “Recommended” level. The revenue has increased slightly or through the recognition of the impact of the rhythm. The optimization of the product structure has helped boost the profit margin. The company’s revenue increased by 1% in the first half of 2019, and replaced 5% in the second and third quarters, mainly due to the improvement in domestic sales.Inventory 12.6 ppm (25%) and the company’s sales method based on sales and production, we judge that because the company’s confirmation of revenue is based on the project system, and the proportion of projects blocked by domestic material in 2018 has increased, the pace of confirmation of some projects has a single quarter of revenueAffected.In 北京夜网 addition, after the company digested the poor-quality orders from 2016 to 2017, the gross profit margin of the product steadily rose, overlapping with the optimization of the company’s internal operating efficiency, and the gross profit / net margin of 2019H1 reached 35.35% / 15.89%, a substantial increase of 4 per year.63pct and 7.64pct. A breakthrough in the natural gas field has been achieved. The high prosperity of the pipeline construction will ensure that the demand will be increased. The company ‘s independently developed 56 ″ Class900 high-pressure large-diameter fully-welded ball valve was completed in April 2019. The prototype performance test was completed in May 2019, and it passed the national product prototype evaluation in May 2019.In July, it passed all the tests at the domestic valve test field of the western pipeline smoke pier gas compression station, reflecting the company’s strong R & D and production capacity.In addition, the report caused the company’s ultra-low temperature valve to grow rapidly, and the caliber and pound scale had breakthrough breakthroughs.With reference to the length of PetroChina’s oil and gas pipelines at the end of 2018 and the length of pipelines completed in 2016-2018, we judge that the construction of natural gas pipelines will accelerate in 2019-2020, and increased investment will drive demand for valves. The company’s breakthrough in the natural gas field will effectively guarantee subsequent ordersAnd performance growth. The improvement of high-end automatic control valve technology will further increase the number of reports in the future. The high-frequency ball valve developed by the company successfully solved a refining unit of CNOOC, replacing imported well-known brand valves, solving seal leaks, switching locks, and maintenance difficultiesThis problem has been well received by customers. It is the basis for the localization of program-controlled ball valves and high-frequency on-off ball valves for hydrogenation units in subsequent refining and chemical projects. Risk warning: raw material prices rise sharply, and uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations increases
Qingdao Haier (600690)： Chongqing Channel Research： The package strategy has achieved initial results The new sales model has significant advantages
Qingdao Haier (600690): Chongqing Channel Research: The package strategy has achieved initial results The new sales model has significant advantages
This report reads: Haier’s complete sales strategy has formed an effective model. If the model can be quickly replicated under the new indicators of changing channel structure, it will rapidly expand the advantages of the high-end market, supplement the shortcomings of the category, and increase its holdings. Investment points: Maintain profit forecast and target price, and increase holdings.The company announced on the 26th that it would change its name to “Haier Zhijia” to promote complete sales and create new competitive advantages.We recently researched the Chongqing Haier Smart Home Integration Store and found that Haier’s complete sales strategy has formed an effective model. We believe that if Haier can quickly replicate this model under the new model of changing channel structure, it 北京夜网 will rapidly expand its high-end market advantage and complement its category.Short board.Maintain 2019-19 EPS forecast1.37/1.62/1.93 yuan unchanged, maintaining a target price of 23.37 yuan, corresponding to the 2019 17X PE estimate, increased holdings. We recently studied Chongqing Haier Smart Home Integration Store.The integrated store was opened in Ranzhijia in 2017, focusing on the concept of “smart home” and high-end brand Casa Di. It has grown more than 100% against the market since 2019. The new model presents the following characteristics: 1) The purchase of complete sets and the strengthening of air conditioners.Consumers entering the home improvement market consider the consistency of home styles. They buy home appliances in complete sets, and the HVAC business accounts for about 40% of the sample store’s revenue, which is flat with the contribution of ice washing.2) The customer value is high.The average single value is 20,000+, and the highest single value is 400,000.3) High secondary consumption rate.After the purchase of high-end customers is completed, word-of-mouth communication leads to a high success rate for secondary consumption.4) Drainage efficiency is significantly improved.The passenger flow of integrated stores mainly comes from consumer secondary fermentation, designer guidance, and cooperation with real estate companies. We believe that Haier has completed the transformation from single-item competition to comprehensive service capability competition through high-end brand building, complete product sales, and preliminary sales channels. If the Chongqing model can be quickly promoted across the country, the company’s comprehensive competitive advantage is expected to be rapid.expand. Core risks: The domestic economy and consumption are accelerating, and the economies of North America and other overseas regions are weakening.
Longji shares (601012)： Profits pick up quarter by quarter, single crystal faucet accelerates production expansion
Longji shares (601012): Profits pick up quarter by quarter, single crystal faucet accelerates production expansion
The company announced its 18-year annual report and 19-year quarterly 北京夜网 report: In 2018, the company realized operating income of 219 in 2018.880,000 yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.38%, net profit attributable to parent company was 25.5.8 billion, down 28 a year.24%, net profit deducted from non-mother 23.44 trillion, down 32 a year.36%, performance is in line with expectations.In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 57.1 ppm, an increase of 64 in ten years.56%, net profit attributable to parent company6.11 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.54%, net profit deducted from non-mother 5 was achieved.96 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.81%, performance in line with expectations. Stable expansion of the plant is clear, and the single crystal integrated leader: To ensure the supply of high-efficiency single crystal products, the company plans to achieve single 都市夜网 crystal wafer production capacity of 36/50 / 65GW in 2019-2021, and single crystal cell slices of 10/15 / 20GW.The module production capacity is 16GW / 25GW / 30GW, further consolidating the position of high-efficiency single crystal integrated leader. Gross profit margins have picked up quarter by quarter, and profit has entered the repair channel: the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin dropped by 10 percentage points in 2018 to 22.25%, mainly due to the domestic “531” in 2018, the photovoltaic industry chain prices in the second half of 2018 fell sharply.Benefiting from the resonance of supplementary and alternative demand, the company’s gross profit margin increased for two consecutive quarters, with a single quarter gross profit margin of 18 in Q4.33%, an increase of 1 unit from the previous quarter, and the gross profit margin for the single quarter of 19Q1 was 23.5%, a month-on-month increase of 1.2 units. Monocrystalline counters adverse growth, with a 19-year revenue target of 30 billion: the monocrystalline market share will further increase to 46% in 2018, and is expected to continue to penetrate.In 2018, the company achieved single-crystal silicon implantation34.8.3 billion pieces, an increase of 59% per year compared to 2017, of which 19 was external sales.6.6 billion pieces, non-silicon controlled within 1 yuan / piece.The assembly of 7,072MW, 5,991MW of external sales, 1,962MW of overseas sales, an annual increase of 370%.The company’s 2019 single crystal silicon wafer expansion target is 6 billion (including self-use), and the module expansion target is 9.5GW (including self-use), and plans to achieve an operating income of 30 billion yuan in 2019. Investment suggestion: We have revised our profit forecast and expect the company EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.21 yuan, 1.63 yuan, 2.04 yuan, corresponding (April 29) PE is 18.8 times, 13.9 times, 11.1x, some prudently increase the rating. Risk warnings: PV installations are less than expected; compensation policies are less than expected; international trade frictions have intensified; raw material prices have fluctuated significantly, etc.
Southern Media (601900)： Steady Development of Educational Publishing Business and Active Advancement of Digital Textbook Layout
Southern Media (601900): Steady Development of Educational Publishing Business and Active Advancement of Digital Textbook Layout
1H19 results are in line with our expected 1H19 results: revenue 26.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.
01%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
900,000 yuan, an increase of 52 in ten years.
59%; deduct non-attributed net profit1.
8.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.
07%, in line with expectations.
Non-recurring gains and losses are mainly because the company holds Great Wall Securities stocks, and investment income from changes in fair value is recognized1.
6.6 billion (before tax); the decrease in non-deductible caliber is mainly due to the fact that incremental tax refunds have not been confirmed, and about 38 million yuan was confirmed in the same period last year.
Development Trends Education and publishing business has grown steadily.
1H19’s publishing and distribution businesses achieved operating income10, respectively.
1.4 billion and 14.
88 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
95% and 19.
The increase in the revenue of the issuance business was mainly due to the merger of the publishing company’s textbooks issued by the Education Bookstore with the joint stock company. Due to the change of the textbook distribution policy, the 2019 Spring Reform and Issuance Group settlement, and the Issuance Group re-settled with the Education Bookstore.The gross profit margin of the issuance business fell 3.
76ppt to 24.
On the whole, however, the company is deeply involved in education business, and its teaching materials supplement its revenue19.
3.9 billion U.S. dollars, the market-oriented sales assistant sales volume increased by more than 30%, achieving a significant breakthrough.
The company holds the exclusive qualification for national primary and secondary school textbook distribution in Guangdong Province, and the city’s market share has gradually increased. We expect to further consolidate the advantages of textbook distribution in the future.
The discount of general 南京夜网 book business increased, and continued to promote the quality and efficiency of the main publishing industry.
Summary of the report, the company’s general book business achieved sales code foreign 3.
520,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.
32%, but the discount rate dropped 6 percentage points to 31%, corresponding to revenue 1.
09 million yuan, gross profit margin fell 9.
64ppt to 17.
We believe this is due to increased competition in e-commerce, and it will also have an impact on the gross profit margin of the publishing business.
Overall, the company published 3425 books in 1H19, and many books were selected for the relevant time, which is at the stage of improving quality and efficiency. We expect that the gross margin of general books will gradually stabilize and rise.
Construction of digital 南京夜网 teaching materials platform was launched.
The digital teaching material business is based on the province’s coverage projects, and actively promotes the construction of the Cantonese teaching cloud digital teaching material application platform, reporting and starting to cash in revenue.
There are currently 23 platform users.
70,000, the scope of use covers 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province.
We expect this part to be a future growth point.
Earnings forecasts and estimates Taking into account changes in the settlement model, we slightly increase our net profit attributable to mothers for 2019/20203.
76% / 0.
32% to 7.89/8.
2.7 billion profit forecast, currently corresponding to 10/2019/2020.
0 times / 9.
5 times price-earnings ratio.
Maintain Outperform rating and 11.
Target price of 80 yuan, corresponding to 13 in 2019/2020.
4 times / 12.
8 times price-earnings ratio, potential 34.
The risk textbook teaching and auxiliary business policy changed, and the province’s textbook teaching and auxiliary business integration was lower than expected.
Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. (600038): Growth in the first three quarters shows positive growth in new models
Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters achieved operating income of 105.
29 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
63%, net profit attributable to mothers4.
500,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
12%, the corresponding return is 0.
Comments: (1) The company achieved operating income of 105 in the first three quarters.
29 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
63%, of which 36 in the third quarter.
28 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
39%, initially due to the increase in the production and delivery of new models of military products; (2) The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters4.
500,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
12%, of which net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter1.
63 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.
In the first three quarters and in the third and third quarters, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers exceeded the growth rate of revenue mainly including: a) increased production and delivery of aviation military products with changing profitability; b) taxes and surcharges in the first three quarters decreased by 6.
63%; c) Financial expenses in the first three quarters decreased by 962.
800,000 yuan, initially due to the increase in interest income and the decrease in interest expenses during this period; d) Investment income increased by 79.
The loss of RMB 670,000 was mainly due to the profit of the invested unit Jiangxi Changhe Agusta Helicopter Co., Ltd. in the current period; (3) Sales expenses increased by 8.
78%, mainly due to the impact of rapid revenue growth; (4) R & D expenses in the first three quarters increased significantly33.
12%, mainly due to new R & D projects and increased R & D investment; (5) From the perspective of assets and liabilities: accounts receivable decreased significantly compared to the beginning of the period by 47.
56%, mainly due to the increase in receivables in this period; inventory increased by 17 from the beginning of the period.
30%, mainly due to the increase in stock preparation caused by the increase in product orders; (6) From the perspective of cash flow: the net cash flow from operating activities increased by 12.
19%, mainly due to the company’s delivery of products to generate revenue and increase profitability.
Leading helicopter companies benefited from the entry of new models into the installation cycle and a barrier to the growth of the military model market.
武汉夜网论坛The company is the main force of the domestic helicopter manufacturing industry. The existing core products include straight 8, straight 9 and straight 11 military helicopters, which are suitable for military needs and are in the leading position in technology in China.
According to the “World Air Force 2019” data, there are currently 902 active military helicopters, and the models that can be automatically produced are mainly light, while the United States active military helicopters are 5,429, mainly medium and heavy helicopters.
In reducing the budget, our army needs to supplement the number of helicopters and adjust the size structure. In particular, 10-ton general-purpose helicopters have begun to equip the army, replacing our army’s blank in the field of medium-sized helicopters.
The medium-sized general-purpose 深圳桑拿网 helicopter can derive a variety of models with different functions based on the platform. It has a wide range of applications in land, sea, and air forces, and is expected to bring enduring and vigorous demand for the company.
General aviation has a bright future, and it is expected to benefit from the growth of the civilian market and localized substitution.
According to data from Asialink ‘s China Navigation Report 2019, as of June 30, 2019, mainland China had a total of 3,317 general aircraft, of which 1,200 were civilian helicopters.
Thanks to the continuous opening of low-altitude airspace and the government’s strong support for the opening of cross-border helicopter services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, helicopter services between Macau-Shenzhen and Hong Kong-Macao have been established. The scale of the helicopters in the next few years is expected to further expand. Hong Kong-Shenzhen Helicopter Airlines also completed its first test flight in July this year. It is expected that the civil helicopter market in Mainland China will further grow.
In terms of the number of helicopters, Robinson Helicopter / Airbus / Bell / Sikorsky / Leonardo’s products account for 35% / 20% / 14% / 10% / 9% of civil helicopter helicopters in mainland China.Leading companies in the field of civil helicopters. The core products include AC311, AC312, AC313 and other types of civilian helicopters, as well as Y12 and Y12F series multi-purpose aircrafts, and domestically produced alternative space missiles.
The integration of AVIC’s salary and operating resources is conducive to the long-term development of the helicopter business.
On October 12, 2018, AVIC, a major shareholder of the company, announced that it would acquire 100% equity of its subsidiary AVIC Helicopter.
On October 13, 2019, AVIC announced the progress of the announcement. The company, China Aviation Industry Corporation and Tianjin Bonded Investment reached an agreement on the overall proposal of the proposed acquisition, and are currently working on the detailed terms of the formal transaction agreement of the proposed acquisition.
After the completion of the acquisition, the helicopter manufacturing business of the aviation industry will fully enter AVIC Science and Industry, which is conducive to the formation of management collaboration and resource coordination of the aviation industry helicopter business, which is conducive to the long-term development of the helicopter business.
Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s EPS in 2019/20/21 will be 1.
71 yuan, corresponding to 38 for PE.
04 times, covering for the first time, giving the company an “overweight” rating.
Risk Warning: The equipment installation progress is less than expected, and the development of the navigation industry is less than expected.
Industrial Fulian (601138)： Benefiting from the Great Development of 5G and Cloud Services Leads the Industrial Internet Wave
Industrial Fulian (601138): Benefiting from the Great Development of 5G and Cloud Services Leads the Industrial Internet Wave
The core view of the leader is steady and steady, and the growth momentum is continuous: the company is a subsidiary of Foxconn Technology Group that locates the industrial Internet business, and is also a leader in intelligent manufacturing of global communications network equipment and cloud service equipment.Leading advantages in technology and technology will maintain steady growth in the next few years: 1) 5G breeds new growth momentum for the company.
The company has more than 1,200 people engaged in 5G and cloud and network related research and development, and has achieved many technological breakthroughs in the field of communication networks. Among them, 5G key technologies such as 5G small base stations, UEs, and MIMO antennas have been completed, which is beneficial to the 5G core layer and network layer.In the field of deployment and data transmission.
Company customers include Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei, Sharp, NEC, etc., and 5G product delivery has begun in July.
2) Cloud service equipment manufacturing leader continues to benefit cloud market growth.
The company has a leading position in customer 杭州桑拿 diversification and global business layout, with a market share of up to 50%. In 2018, the customer base expanded from the field of network communications to telecommunications operators.
The 8K new technology and other factors will drive the IaaS market to have a CAGR of 28% in 17-21, bringing a new round of demand for equipment.
3) Precision tools and industrial robots are positioned at the high end and continue to benefit from intelligent manufacturing.
The company is a leader in precision tool industry. It has developed key core technologies that have been accumulated for many years. It has R & D and manufacturing capabilities for all types of tools in the electronics industry and can also provide overall solutions.
In the future, the company will develop from traditional tools to intelligent tools to enable external power.
The company’s robot products are mainly used to perform tasks with high repetitiveness or high danger, and are also sold outside for their own use.
Establishing a new industrial Internet ecology: The company’s leading layout of the Industrial Internet, Fog Cerebellum, Beacon Factory, FiiCloud cloud platform has been successfully applied in many fields such as enabling light-out factories, business management systems FMCS, and so on.
Some subsidiaries have achieved improvements in equipment utilization rate, tool development cycle, and degree through the Fii Cloud. The worry-free production line achieved revenue of 4.7 billion yuan in the first quarter.
Industrial Internet is expected to improve financial indicators such as the company’s profitability in the future.
The company has also been selected into 16 lighthouse factories of the World Economic Forum.
In the future, the company will gradually empower the outside world and continue to promote the upgrading of traditional manufacturing to advanced manufacturing.
Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions We predict that the company’s earnings in 2019-21 will be 0.
18 yuan, according to comparable companies to the company 18 times PE 19 years, the corresponding target price is 16.
92 yuan, the first buy rating.
Risks indicate that the company’s smart manufacturing business is falling short of expectations, the impact of changes in the gross margin of communications equipment, and the development of the Industrial Internet is falling short of expectations.
Perfect World (002624) Company comment： The first month of Perfect World is expected to exceed 600 million, with 2019 to reach 2 to 3 billion
Perfect World (002624) Company comment: The first month of “Perfect World” is expected to exceed 600 million, with 2019 to reach 2 to 3 billion
Event Commentary On March 6, 2019, the “Perfect World” mobile game was tested on the entire platform. On the first day of launch, it rushed to the top of the AppStore free list and the 25th best-selling list.
On March 7, the “Perfect World” best-selling list jumped to second place. On March 9, “Perfect World” surpassed “Glory of the King” and ranked first on the best-seller list.
We believe that “Perfect World” is the best performing MMO mobile game in the first week since July last year.
“Perfect World” mobile game is adapted from the same name end game, open beta every year at the end of 2005, is the benchmark product of China 3DMMORPG.
After more than ten years of development, “Perfect World” has become a well-deserved top-end end game IP. After being adapted into a mobile game, it has a natural and powerful drainage capacity and market attention.
This mobile game has a high degree of reduction to the end game, the picture is beautiful, and the characteristic flight system is widely praised.
From the user’s point of view, the “Perfect World” terminal game was released earlier, its audience is a bit older, and it has a certain economic foundation. Under the emotional offensive, it is considered to have higher potential.
Of course, if the mobile game is to build an “evergreen tree”, it is necessary to reposition multiple grounds to attract young players into the pit.
From the perspective of the operation side, the “Perfect World” is released by Tencent’s exclusive agent, which can make full use of Tencent’s strong conductance and operational capabilities; instead, the “Perfect World” has excellent schedules and is in a period when the mobile game industry MMO masterpiece is out of touch.Successfully avoid being diverted by the same level.
Based on the above judgments, we expect “Perfect World” to have more than 600 million inflows in the first month and approximately 2 to 3 billion in vertical flows. According to the precedent of cooperation between Tencent and top 杭州夜网论坛 content parties, Perfect World may get about 30% of the total flow.
To judge the long-term specific flow, two points of time are very important: the first is the next weekend after the game is online, and the second is one month after the game is online.
Investment suggestion End-of-sale is the most efficient mobile game business model that has been verified by the market. In the case that most of the end-game IPs in the market have been adapted to mobile games, the “Perfect World” mobile game has both the right and the right place,Its dazzling performance after the public test will help Perfect World’s game business achieve substantial growth in 2019.
Based on 21x 2019 P / E (1.
0x 2019-21 P / E / G), maintain “Buy” rating and 38.
50 yuan target price.
This estimate is higher than expected by the A-share gaming industry.
Risk factors: The game flow is not up to expectations, the life cycle is prolonged, the player’s aesthetic fatigue, and the regulatory risk.
How to judge the monthly flow of a mobile game?
We can refer to similar games and some similarly ranked games on the App Store list to predict the flow of “Perfect World”.
Due to the diminishing marginal utility of IP mobile games and the player ‘s aesthetic fatigue, games ranked in the same position as the rankings a year or two ago have a certain degree of decline in both the life cycle and the order of magnitude.
Of course, the “Eating Chicken” game has been absorbing the user time of other games since it was launched, and it has also replaced the new game.
In 2016, Perfect World accompanied TOP5 in the App Store’s best-selling list for the first month in TOP5, half of the time in TOP15, and about 400 million in the first month.
After the “Dragon Valley” was launched in March 2017, it remained the second best-selling list in the App Store for about a month, and official data showed that the first month was flowing 9.
After the launch of “My Name is MT4” in July 2018, it also maintained the second place in the App Store’s bestseller list for about a month. Gamma data predicts that “My Name is MT4” will run 1 billion in the first month.About 600 million to 700 million.
In November 2018, “Naruto OL-Ninja New Generation” public beta, the first month about 20 days within TOP5, of which about 10 days TOP3, the rest of the time is within TOP10, the first month of about 300 million to 400 million.
On March 7, “Perfect World” ranked second on the App Store’s best-seller list, and on March 9, “Perfect World” surpassed “Glory of the King” and ranked first on the best-seller list.
Eventually, “Perfect World” is still at the top, and we expect “Perfect World” to stabilize at TOP3 in March.
Based on the above information, we judge that “Perfect World” will have more than 6 billion running water in the first month.
How to judge the long-term running of a mobile game?
The life cycle of mobile game products is closely related to the type of game.
Generally speaking, the life cycle of MMORPG is shorter than that of SLG and e-sports games, because the former is a typical “content-consuming” game. Unless new content is continuously released (including expansions, large version upgrades, etc.), players willLost naturally over time.
Since the era of end-games, there are only a few MMORPGs that can become “evergreen”.
In the era of mobile games, in general, it is good that MMORPG can stay in the top ten of the top ten for 3-6 months, and it is very rare to stay for 6-12 months.
Due to MMO mobile game scheduled points, under normal circumstances, the first month of launch is the highest flow of water, after which it will maintain a peak flow of 1/3-2/2 in a longer stay.
“Perfect World” as a typical end-to-hand MMO product, there is a high probability that it will naturally decay in accordance with such a development path. Based on this, we expect that “Perfect World” is expected to have a turnover of 2 to 3 billion.
According to the historical records of Tencent and our partners, we estimate that Perfect World can get about 30%.
For investors, two time routines are very important: the first is the second weekend after Perfect World goes live (around March 16); the second is one month after the launch.In general, one week after the end-to-end new game is launched, the core players in end-games have been attracted to almost the same level. The next step is to test the ability to attract new players and the retention rate of old players.
After one month, more than half of the initial game content and diversion effect were consumed, entering the “long-distance running” stage, which tested the content reserve and operational capabilities.
Among the “end-to-hand” MMORPGs exclusive to Tencent, there are “evergreens” with a life cycle such as “Legend of Blood” and “Swordsman Love”, and there are also rankings like “Miracle: Awakening” and “Magic Baby”.Easy and quick “stream” products.
How long can Perfect World stay at the top of the bestseller list?
The answer will not be announced until early April.
Why did “Perfect World” perform so strongly in the first week?
Although the market had high hopes for the “Perfect World” mobile game as early as the internal test phase, its first week performance still exceeded expectations-since “My MT4” was launched in July 2018, Tencent’s MMORPG has never been releasedSuch a brilliant performance in the best-selling list.
We believe that in addition to the game product itself, there are two other factors that are very important: the rhythm of Tencent’s new mobile game releases, and the large-scale publicity and promotion before the perfect world is launched.
Since December 2018, Tencent has not released a mobile game masterpiece.
During the winter vacation, Tencent only launched a few small and medium-cost games that belong to the “Aurora Project”, such as “Nao Nao Tian Gong.”
“Perfect World” is a breakthrough in Tencent’s three-month “new mobile game vacuum period”, and it will inevitably get a huge tilt in Tencent’s traffic and operating resources in the initial stage of launch.
We observed that before the “Perfect World” mobile game went online, in addition to the major purchase channels, there were a lot of publicity and promotion in the app store, and there were also a lot of promotions in the offline life circle ads (buildings, transportation sites, etc.).
Such a powerful publicity offensive, coupled with the IP popularity of “Perfect World” itself, is definitely a plus in attracting players in the early stages.
Risk Tips The current TAPTAP score of Perfect World is low compared to the masterpiece of the same level. Players report that the game has too many gold points, which has affected the internal ecological balance of the game.
Tencent’s exclusive agent for mobile games often concentrates a large amount of diversion in the first few weeks, and subsequent diversion effects are average, which may affect the life cycle.
In the entire mobile game industry, the trend of player’s aesthetic fatigue is relatively obvious, which may cause the life cycle of most mobile game products in 2019 to be changed than before.