Changchun High-tech (000661)： Performance Exceeds Expectations Kinsey Pharmaceuticals Continues High Growth
Changchun High-tech (000661): Performance Exceeds Expectations Kinsey Pharmaceuticals Continues High Growth
Core point of view The company released the 2019 annual performance forecast: the company’s net profit attributable to mothers is expected to gradually realize16.10-18.12 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 60-80%, and performance exceeded expectations.The driving force of the company’s high-performance growth has been extended to the core subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical to maintain a high growth trend, and since November 19, the minority shareholders’ equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical has resumed (29.5%) began consolidation and strengthened the company’s performance. According to the central forecast of the company’s performance forecast range, the profit side of Jinsai Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve an increase of about 70%, and growth hormone maintains a good sales trend.According to the company’s announcement, Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s net profit from January to October 19 was approximately 16.1.5 billion US dollars (statutory audit). Based on the company’s three quarterly report and the central forecast of the annual performance forecast range, we estimate that Jinsai Pharmaceutical will achieve a net profit of approximately US $ 1 billion and 10 billion in November and December to December.The initial net profit of the U.S. dollar is expected to exceed 1.9 billion U.S. dollars, with an annual growth rate of about 70%. Growth hormone has continued the good growth trend of the first three quarters. In the second half of 19, the distribution of chickenpox vaccine returned to normal, and the nasal spray vaccine is expected to be approved for marketing this year.According to the China Academy of Inspection, the total number of varicella vaccines issued by the vaccine subsidiary Baike Biological in 2019 was 715.960,000 sticks, an increase of 5 in ten years.2%, of which Q1-Q4 respectively achieved a batch of 51 issued.360,000 sticks, 162.04 million, 271.590,000, 230.970,000, the second half of the batch issued has returned to normal.In addition, according to the disclosure of CDE, the company has completed on-site inspection of production registration of the nasal spray influenza vaccine under development and is expected to be approved for listing in 2020 to contribute to the increase in performance. Earnings forecasts and investment advice.As Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s minority equity has been consolidated and the company’s performance has exceeded expectations, we have raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 1.7 billion and 28, respectively.32 ppm, 37.4.8 billion, of which 2020 and 2021 Jinsai Pharmaceutical initially followed 99.The 5% equity ratio is consolidated.Considering fixed dilution, EPS is 8 respectively.4 yuan, 13.99 yuan, 18.52 yuan, corresponding to the current market value of PE is 53X / 32X / 24X.With reference to the average PE36X of comparable companies in 2020, the company’s reasonable value is raised to 503.64 yuan / share, give a buy rating. risk warning.The 重庆耍耍网 growth hormone market is not up to expectations; the progress of the product under development is not up to expectations; the expansion of research and development may drag down the company’s performance.